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Ole Miss vs. Kentucky prediction, odds: 2022 Week 5 college football picks, bets from proven model

Kentucky vs. Ole Miss: Prediction, pick, spread, football game odds, live stream, watch online, TV channel

The 14th-ranked Ole Miss Rebels will look to continue their recent domination over the seventh-ranked Kentucky Wildcats when they meet in a Southeastern Conference crossover matchup on Saturday. The Rebels (4-0) have won the last two meetings with the Wildcats (4-0), and six of the last eight. Mississippi is coming off a 35-27 win over Tulsa in a game they trailed 14-7 late in the first quarter. Kentucky, meanwhile, trailed early against Northern Illinois before building a 17-point lead early in the fourth quarter before hanging on for the non-conference win.


Kickoff from Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Miss., is set for noon ET. Kentucky is averaging 31.25 points per game this season, while Ole Miss averages 41. The Rebels are favored by 6.5 points in the latest Kentucky vs. Ole Miss odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 54.5. Before making any Ole Miss vs. Kentucky picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.


The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of more than $3,100 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.


Now, the model has set its sights on Ole Miss vs. Kentucky and just locked in its picks and CFB predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the college football odds and betting lines for Kentucky vs. Ole Miss:


There are five teams in the SEC who are still undefeated entering Week 5, and two of those squads will go head-to-head on Saturday when No. 7 Kentucky travels to No. 14 Ole Miss. The Rebels are favorites in this game after Lane Kiffin's squad moved to 4-0 with a 35-27 win over Tulsa last week. Ole Miss has been dominant on the ground, rushing for more than 1,100 yards through three games behind a scary three-headed running back attack of Quinshon Judkins, Zach Evans and Ulysses Bentley IV.


Kentucky is off to a strong start, too. The Wildcats beat Florida 26-16 on the road in Week 2 and has shot up the rankings. Quarterback Will Levis has been highly efficient, completing 67.5% of his passes for 1,185 yards and 10 touchdowns in four games. The defense has not taken any steps back early, either.


Ole Miss has won its last two games against Kentucky -- the only two matchups of the past decade thanks to the SEC's divisional scheduling model. However, the wins in 2020 and 2017 came by a combined four points. Kentucky running back Chris Rodriguez rushed for 133 yards and two touchdowns against the Rebels in the most recent matchup. Ole Miss holds a 28-14-1 all-time advantage.


Kentucky vs. Ole Miss: Need to know

Rodriguez's return: The Wildcats rank No. 121 nationally in rushing success rate, but those numbers will flip quickly this week. Rodriguez, perhaps the top returning running back in the SEC, returns this week. While Kavosiey Smoke has played well, Rodriguez posted 1,379 yards rushing and nine touchdowns in 2021 to lead Kentucky to a 10-win season. Mixing Rodriguez with the cast of offensive characters that have starred through the first four games should give Kentucky another gear.


Strength on strength: Kentucky coach Mark Stoops came to Kentucky as a defensive mind, and the Wildcats have been lethal against the run. UK is allowing just 3.7 yards per carry and held Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson to just four yards rushing. However, the Rebels are the best rushing team in the SEC by a nearly 40-yard margin. Either Evans or Judkins has rushed for 100 yards in every game this season. Something has to give.



Quarterback battle: Two of the most talked-about quarterbacks of the offseason are set to face off as projected first-round NFL Draft pick Will Levis plays opposite blue-chip USC transfer Jaxson Dart. The Kentucky passing game has been as productive as it has been in a while behind more than 10 yards per pass attempt from Levis. His one issue has been interceptions, with four through four games. Dart has been efficient, but slightly shakier. He is completing 62.2% of his passes, but has rushed for more than 200 yards. The better performance on Saturday likely wins the game.


How to watch Kentucky vs. Ole Miss live

Date: Saturday, Oct. 1 | Time: 12 p.m. ET

Location: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium -- Oxford, Mississippi

TV: ESPN | Live stream: fuboTV (Try for free)


Why Ole Miss can cover

The Rebels have a pair of explosive wide receivers in seniors Jonathan Mingo and Malik Heath. Mingo leads the team with 257 yards receiving on 12 receptions (21.4 average) and one touchdown. He has had three receptions in each game this season, including a 103-yard performance against Central Arkansas on Sept. 10. In four years at Ole Miss, Mingo has 73 receptions for 1,154 yards (15.8 average) and eight touchdowns.


Heath is tied for the team lead with 13 receptions for 220 yards (16.9 average) and three scores. Last week against Tulsa, Heath caught four passes for 75 yards (18.8 average) and one touchdown. He also had touchdown receptions in each of the first two games. For his career, he has 84 receptions for 969 yards (11.5 average) and 11 touchdowns.


Why Kentucky can cover

Despite that, the Rebels are not a lock to cover the Kentucky vs. Ole Miss spread. That's because the Wildcats are led by senior quarterback Will Levis, who has compiled a 174.0 rating this season. Levis has completed 79 of 117 passes for 1,185 yards and 10 touchdowns. He has been picked off four times. Levis is third in the SEC in passing efficiency and passing touchdowns.


Leading Kentucky's rushing attack thus far has been fifth-year senior running back Kavosiey Smoke. Smoke has carried 51 times for 263 yards (5.2 average) and one touchdown. He also has three receptions for 30 yards. He has played in 38 career games for the Wildcats, rushing for 1,569 yards. Last week, Smoke had 12 carries for 85 yards (7.1 average) against Northern Illinois. The Wildcats will also have running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. (suspension) back in the lineup. The senior ran for 1,379 yards and nine touchdowns last season.


How to make Kentucky vs. Ole Miss picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 51 combined points. It has also generated an against the spread pick that cashes in well over 50% of simulations. You can only get the model's pick at SportsLine.


So who wins Ole Miss vs. Kentucky? And which side of the spread cashes in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that finished the past six-plus years up more than $3,100 on its FBS college football picks, and find out.