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Minnesota vs. Purdue prediction, odds, spread: 2022 Week 5 college football picks, best bets from proven model

📺📱👉 Purdue vs Minnesota Live

📺📱👉 Purdue vs Minnesota Live

  • No. 21 Minnesota (4-0) will host Purdue (2-2) in a Big Ten contest on Saturday afternoon. The Golden Gophers roll into this game red-hot, defeating each opponent by at least 27 points. Last week, Minnesota blew out Michigan State 34-7. Meanwhile, Purdue bounced back in Week 4 and pulled out a 28-26 win over Florida Atlantic. Minnesota has covered in all three games against FBS competition while Purdue has yet to cover this season.

Kickoff from Huntington Bank Stadium in Minnesota is set for noon ET. The Golden Gophers are 11-point favorites in the latest Purdue vs. Minnesota odds. The over/under for total points is set at 52. Before making any Minnesota vs. Purdue picks, be sure to see the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of more than $3,100 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Purdue vs. Minnesota and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several college football odds and trends for Minnesota vs. Purdue:

Look, 2-2 isn’t where I want to be for my predictions or for this Purdue team. I thought both of us had a real shot at sitting at 4-0 on the season right now. But, we’ve just gotta go back, watch the tape, and learn from our mistakes. We’ve gotten better each week and this week is just another chance to improve.

Looking at the current odds on Draft Kings Purdue is currently a 12 point dog and as much as I’ve quibbled with the folks in Vegas in the past this sounds right to me. Purdue simply doesn’t win in Minnesota and Minnesota has been crushing people, but to quote Woody Paige from ESPN “LOOK AT THE SCHEDULE!” They’ve played two of the worst FBS teams as well as an FCS team. The only other game is Michigan State and I just don’t think we know enough about them to know if that’s a good win or not.

I discussed this on the latest podcast but the weak schedule and their WR1 being out are both huge helps for Purdue. The question mark is does AOC play? At this point I’m inclined to think he doesn’t and that hurts Purdue too. I think Purdue keeps it close but they are unable to completely stop Ibrahim and the Minnesota running attack.

Why Minnesota can cover

Senior quarterback Tanner Morgan is the signal-caller under center. Morgan has showcased his capability to be accurate and place the ball anywhere on the field with the arm talent to throw on the run. The Kentucky native owns a quick release and can pick up easy yards with his legs if the opportunity is presented. Morgan has completed 77% of his throws for 886 yards with seven passing touchdowns.

Jeff Brohm has struggled mightily against PJ Fleck since they both came to the Big Ten in 2017, and I think those struggles continue. Purdue possibly not having O’Connell once again would make things even worse. I am going to assume he plays in this game, but it’s still not enough. Minnesota has looked very good this year though, giving up just 6 points per game and Mo Ibrahim dominating out of the backfield. (If O’Connell remains out, Purdue loses 38-21.)

I have no idea who is playing quarterback for Purdue on Saturday. That seems like a key piece of information (another reason why I never bet on Purdue). If O’Connell plays, Purdue has a puncher’s chance on the road. This game needs to get into the 30’s (maybe 40’s?) for Purdue to win. That’s possible with O’Connell at the helm. If it’s Burton and the run first offense, Purdue is in trouble. I don’t think the defense can hold Minnesota under 30, and I don’t think the Purdue offense under Burton (or any other QB on the roster) can get Purdue over 30. Either way. I’m not picking Purdue to win this one on the road after what we’ve seen at home this season.

The Golden Gophers have a dominant ground attack. This offensive line has been able to impose its will on defenders and create gaping holes. They are first in the conference in rushing yards per game (294.5). Senior running back Mohamed Ibrahim is tough to bring down in open space due to his elusiveness and agility. Ibrahim is second in the nation in rushing yards (567) along with eight scores. He's rushed for 100-plus yards in all four games thus far.

Why Purdue can cover

The Boilermakers have an exciting and effective offense. Purdue is second in the Big Ten in passing yards per game (311) while averaging 36 points per game. They may be without senior quarterback Aidan O'Connell who has an undisclosed injury. Senior quarterback Austin Burton showcased his ability to step up and have command of the offense.

Last week, Burton went 21 of 29 for 166 yards with three passing touchdowns. Senior Charlie Jones is a smooth route runner and a secure possession receiver. Jones has natural hands with the ability to track the ball extremely well downfield. The Illinois native is first in the nation in receptions (41), third in receiving yards (533), and tied for first in receiving touchdowns (7). On Sept. 17, he recorded 11 catches for 188 yards and a score.

How to make Purdue vs. Minnesota picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 55 points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only get the model's pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Purdue vs. Minnesota? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college football picks, and find out.